Fall-through rates have edged down across 10 of the UK’s 13 regions, analysis from TwentyCi has revealed.
Nationally, the fall-through rate fell from 24% in Q1 25 to 23.7% in Q1 26, a modest but meaningful 0.3% percentage-point decline. This represents a 1.3% decrease in the fall-through rate relative to the previous year.
TwentyCi measures the fall-through rate as the percentage of concluded listings with a sale agreed that failed to complete.
The data was revealed in TwentyCi’s latest edition of its Property & Homemover Report for Q1 26.
For agents operating in a market shaped by stamp duty changes, mansion tax uncertainty and persistently high mortgage rates, the figures suggest that buyer commitment is holding firm outside the South East.
The improvement in fall-throughs was relatively broad. Ten of the UK’s 13 regions recorded lower fall-through rates, with Northern Ireland posting the sharpest improvement at -11.1%, followed by Scotland at -6.3% and Wales at -5.7%.
The clear outlier in the data is Inner London, where the fall-through rate rose from 24.6% to 27.0%, a 9.7% year-on-year increase. In practical terms, this means more than one in four agreed sales in central London collapsed before exchange.
The increase coincides with the announcement of the proposed mansion tax in November 2025, which is likely to have weighed on buyer confidence. TwentyCi’s full-year 2025 report recorded a 20.2% drop in London demand following the Autumn Budget, and the latest fall-through data for Q1 2026 suggests this impact is continuing, with higher-value buyers more likely to renegotiate or withdraw from agreed deals.
Stuart Ducker, Strategic Solutions Director at TwentyCi, said: “While the overall decline in fall-through rates is modest, it’s still meaningful for agents operating in a challenging market. In absolute terms, fall-throughs dropped by 12.1%, from 76,814 in Q1 2025 to 67,489 this year.
“However, volumes only tell part of the story, which is why looking at fall-through rates provides a clearer view of underlying market stability. The regional variation is also notable, with some areas seeing significantly stronger improvements than others.”
As part of their analysis, TwentyCi examined every fall-through in Q1 2026 by the number of weeks elapsed since the sale was agreed, and compared this with the same period in 2025.
The pattern is strikingly consistent across both years. Around 38% of all fall-throughs occur within the first four weeks of a sale being agreed, highlighting a critical early-stage risk window for agents. The highest-risk period is weeks one and two, which together account for just under 16% of all collapsed transactions.
After week 12, the weekly share falls below 3% and continues to decline steadily.
The timing of fallen-throughs has not shifted materially despite changes to stamp duty thresholds, the mansion tax, or three Bank of England rate cuts in 2025. Deals that are going to fail tend to fail early, and that pattern is remarkably stable regardless of the wider market headwinds.
The graph below uses Q1 25 and Q1 26 data to show how fall-throughs are most likely to occur in the first four weeks of a sale agreed. The horizontal axis shows weeks elapsed since sale agreed; the vertical axis shows the share of fall-throughs occurring in each week.
Ducker added: “What the data clearly shows is that the first four weeks after a sale is agreed are where the greatest risk sits. If a deal is going to fall through, it’s most likely to happen within that window.
“Proactive communication with all parties during those initial weeks remains best practice, and the data shows it’s where agents can have the greatest impact.”
Supply and demand
New property listings have continued to rise in 2026, building on the record highs seen last year. Supply is up 5.1% year-on-year, with increases recorded across all price bands and in most UK regions.
Growth has been strongest at the lower end of the market, with listings for homes priced between £0 and £200,000 up 6.1%, followed by a 5.2% increase in the £200,000 to £350,000 bracket.
Regionally, the South East is leading the way, with supply up 8.9% year-on-year. More broadly, the data points to stronger growth in supply across southern regions compared with the North.
Year-to-date, sales agreed in 2026 are running below last year’s levels, largely reflecting the distortion created by the stamp duty holiday in 2025.
Overall demand is currently 3.3% lower year-on-year, although it remains above 2023 levels by 17.2% and 3.8% higher than in 2024.
The slowdown has been felt across most of the UK, with demand declining year-on-year in every region except Scotland, where no stamp duty holiday was in place. London has seen the sharpest contraction, with demand in Inner London down 12.5%, followed by a 7.4% drop in Outer London.
Across price bands, demand has softened universally, with the largest reduction seen in properties priced up to £200,000, where activity is down 4.0%.
Transactions
With last year’s stamp duty holiday distorting comparisons, TwentyCi has benchmarked current activity against earlier years rather than 2025. By that measure, transactions are up 10.7% on Q1 2023 and 19.2% on Q1 2024, underlining a resilient start to the year.
Ducker added: “Global disruption can and will weigh on the UK property market. The good news is that so far, we’re not seeing a huge impact from the conflict in the Middle East. There is some initial cooling, especially in London and the South East, as fixed rates surge back above 5%, a blow for many borrowers.”
Download the latest Property and Homemover Report here.
