Jonathan Samuels, CEO of specialist lender, Octane Capital, believes that the bridging market is set to regain momentum following a subdued start to 2026, with the latest forecast suggesting that total completions could reach £8bn by the end of the year.
Octane Capital analysed bridging completion data over the previous 24 months, using an ETS exponential smoothing forecasting model, accounting for seasonality and based on a middle bound confidence interval, to forecast where the market could stand by the end of 2026.
The latest figures show that bridging completions totalled £1.8bn during the first quarter of 2026, marking a -26.5% reduction versus the final quarter of 2025 and a -35.7% annual decline compared to Q1 last year.
However, this slowdown follows an exceptional period of expansion for the bridging market, with annual completions increasing from £5.76bn in 2023 to £7.34bn in 2024, before surpassing £10bn for the first time in 2025 at an estimated £10.03bn.
Octane Capital's forecast suggests that activity will recover from the subdued levels seen at the start of the year, with total bridging completions estimated to reach £8bn across 2026 as a whole.
Whilst this would represent a reduction compared to the exceptional £10.03bn recorded in 2025, it would still leave annual bridging activity around 39% higher than the £5.76bn recorded in 2023, highlighting the significant expansion of the market over the last few years
The continued prominence of bridging reflects its increasingly important role within a property market where speed, flexibility and certainty have become vital for borrowers. From time-sensitive purchases and chain breaks to refurbishment projects and development exits, bridging finance provides an alternative route to funding where mainstream lending may not offer the flexibility or pace required.
As a result, whilst 2026 looks set to mark a period of adjustment following two years of substantial growth, the longer-term picture suggests bridging has established itself at a considerably higher level of activity than just a few years ago.
Jonathan Samuels, CEO of Octane Capital, commented:
“The wider bridging market may have started the year at a more subdued level following the exceptional growth seen in recent years, but that certainly wasn't reflective of our own experience at Octane, where we enjoyed a very strong first half, further strengthened by our acquisition by Aldermore.
More broadly, it's important not to mistake a short-term market slowdown for a fundamental reduction in the importance of bridging finance. Our forecast suggests that completions could still reach around £8bn by the end of the year.
That would understandably fall short of the record-breaking levels seen in 2025, but it would still leave the market almost 40% larger than it was in 2023, demonstrating just how significantly bridging's role within the wider lending landscape has grown.
The fundamental drivers behind this growth haven't disappeared. Borrowers still require speed and certainty, investors need the flexibility to act when opportunities arise and developers increasingly require funding solutions that can accommodate more complex project and exit timelines.
So whilst 2026 may prove to be a year of recalibration for the wider market rather than one of record-breaking growth, bridging finance remains firmly established as a vital part of the property finance landscape.”
